Prospective evaluation and falsifiability protocol

Blinded prediction and outcome join

Separate prediction production from outcome adjudication until both sides are immutable.

Required inputs

Pseudonymous task IDs

Locked predictions

Outcome records

Submission deadline

Join key

Ordered execution

Work the protocol

  1. 1

    Generate task IDs without outcome labels.

  2. 2

    Submit predictions before availability.

  3. 3

    Seal prediction digests.

  4. 4

    Adjudicate outcomes independently.

  5. 5

    Join only by the frozen pseudonymous key.

Outputs

  • Blinded task set
  • Submission receipts
  • Paired scoring table

Done only when

  • Every included prediction predates outcome.
  • Join cardinality is explicit.
  • Excluded rows retain reasons.

Fail closed

Refusal conditions

  • Predictor sees outcome or proxy.
  • Outcome reviewer sees preferred model label.
  • Unmatched tasks are silently dropped.