Prospective evaluation and falsifiability protocol

Outcome definition and horizon lock

Make the scored event observable without substituting a nearby success after the deadline.

Required inputs

Outcome variable

Measurement source

Start and end instants

Availability timestamp

Missingness rule

Ordered execution

Work the protocol

  1. 1

    Choose the outcome independently of predictions.

  2. 2

    Define exactly when it counts.

  3. 3

    Name the system of record.

  4. 4

    Freeze the availability and missing-data policy.

  5. 5

    Reject post-horizon outcome substitution.

Outputs

  • Outcome contract
  • Observation schedule
  • Missingness policy

Done only when

  • One row has one decidable outcome.
  • Source and availability are auditable.
  • No chart field changes measurement.

Fail closed

Refusal conditions

  • A proxy replaces a failed primary outcome.
  • The horizon moves after a miss.
  • Self-reported and instrumented outcomes are merged.