Prospective evaluation and falsifiability protocol

Null, adverse, and replication reporting

Publish the complete evidentiary outcome rather than only favorable forecasts.

Required inputs

Registered hypothesis

Locked analysis

All eligible outcomes

Protocol deviations

Replication status

Ordered execution

Work the protocol

  1. 1

    Verify the registration and data digest.

  2. 2

    Run the locked analysis once.

  3. 3

    Classify positive, null, inconclusive, or adverse.

  4. 4

    Publish deviations and missingness.

  5. 5

    Keep replication distinct from discovery.

Outputs

  • Complete result report
  • Deviation log
  • Replication requirement

Done only when

  • All outcomes reconcile.
  • Classification follows the locked policy.
  • Claims do not exceed the observed protocol.

Fail closed

Refusal conditions

  • A null result is omitted.
  • An adverse result is relabelled exploratory.
  • A same-dataset rerun is called replication.