Required inputs
Frozen rule version
Eligible population
Observable outcome
Forecast horizon
Direction and threshold
Ordered execution
Work the protocol
- 1
State one claim in advance.
- 2
Define inclusion and exclusion without celestial features.
- 3
Choose one observable outcome and horizon.
- 4
Freeze the decision rule and abstention policy.
- 5
Digest and timestamp the registration before prediction.
Outputs
- Preregistered hypothesis
- Eligibility contract
- Registration digest
Done only when
- A null result is possible.
- Timing precedes outcome availability.
- All analytical choices are frozen.
Fail closed
Refusal conditions
- Outcome wording can change after observation.
- Population selection uses chart favorability.
- The claim has no possible disconfirming result.